The Culture War Cycle
Introduction
For over a decade and a half, we've been trapped in an endless cycle of identity wars, each lasting roughly five years and oscillating predictably between battles over sex and race. These conflicts are not random but structured, overlapping just enough that one peaks as the other begins its ascent.
Each iteration follows a familiar pattern: an inciting event ignites discourse, factions entrench themselves, and mainstream institutions shift their focus to accommodate (or suppress) the dominant ideological movement of the time. Just as the intensity reaches a breaking point, fatigue sets in, and the war cools down—only for the next front to erupt.
This pendulum swing is not coincidental but a function of modern social dynamics, particularly the way media, academia, and corporate interests manipulate these conflicts to consolidate control. The pattern is clear: gender conflicts dominate until exhaustion, giving way to racial conflicts, which in turn peak and collapse into the next gender war. Each cycle leaves behind ideological residue, permanently reshaping cultural norms, institutions, and public discourse.
We are not simply observing history; we are watching a system operate in real time. Understanding this cycle is key to anticipating the next front in the culture war and recognizing the deeper forces at play.
Gender War 1: (2012-2017)
A conflict between men and women over dominance in cultural and economic spheres, particularly in video games. Primarily driven by female aggravation toward masculine social norms, i.e., patriarchy.
Factions
Masculine Side
MRAs (Men's Rights Activists) / "True Egalitarians" – Dudes pissed that feminism didn’t stop at legal equality and kept going.
Gamers – Nerdy kids at odds with gaming companies expanding their market beyond the predominantly white male audience. They claimed they were fine with diversity but rejected the accompanying "PC nonsense" (now called wokeness). In reality, you can’t have one without the other.
Goals:
Preserve gaming culture in its early 2010s form (Total Failure)
Promote "ethics in games journalism" (Not Applicable / Dead Medium)
Promote "true gender egalitarianism," i.e., late 1990s to early 2000s feminism (Total Failure)
Anti-Masculine Side
Normie Feminists – SlutWalk participants and wannabe girlbosses. Wanted to be seen as equal to men but also as oppressed victims lacking agency when they fuckup. Sought to maximize social power while minimizing responsibility. Today, most avoid the feminist label due to its toxicity and have become apolitical or center-left corporate climbers.
Sex-Negative Feminists – Led the 2010s feminist movement, tanking its optics by being grotesque. Their goal was to stigmatize masculinity unless it was submissive to feminist control. Remnants of this group now form the majority of feminists, essentially all radfems.
SJWs – Provided ideological backing via intersectionality. Widely reviled today. Their mere existence justified the alt-right in the eyes of regular people through sheer disgust.
Goals:
Classify regretted sex as rape (Partial Success)
Fagify gaming/nerd culture (Total Success)
Make games look uglier (Total Success)
Normalize anti-male double standards (Total Success)
Events
Gender Pay Gap Discourse (2012-2018): No real change. Many women realized that to equal men’s earnings, they had to work more and gave up.
Campus Rape Scare (2012-2018): Huge success for feminists. Young men in college became terrified of false accusations and social castration. However, this fear ultimately benefited the far-right.
Gamergate (2014ish-2015): Total Loss. Gamergate’s loss was the best thing for the far-right. Hundreds of thousands of young men, enraged over their favorite hobby being destroyed by grotesque feminists, became radicalized. This likely contributed to Trump’s election and the rise of the alt-right.
SJWism (2013-2020): Ultimately won but was short-lived. Peaked in late 2020 Trump-era chaos.
Pussy Hat / Women’s March (2017): No clear winner. Oddly, Roe v. Wade protests were much smaller.
Me Too Movement (2017-2019): Very successful but indirectly beneficial for the right. Divorced/lonely men are the most likely group to go far-right.
Gender Cooldown (2018-2020)
By 2018, normie feminism declined.
The only major gender-related issue that persisted in the zeitgeist was residual Me Too discourse into early 2019. In summary: feminists bodied gamers, and the guys below, did not, in fact, save civilization.
Overall Winner: (Bad Guys)
Race War 1: 2015-2020
A conflict between pro-whites and anti-whites over the moral legitimacy of explicit white identity and anti-white concepts like white privilege and multiculturalism. Ignited by a rising tide of anti-white sentiment among woke progressive activists (then called SJWs).
Factions
Pro White Side
Alt-Right (Core & Moderate) – White nationalists, identitarians, neo-Nazis, and neoreactionaries. Started strong in 2015 but died shortly after Trump's election. Charlottesville was the catalyst for their downfall, but it was inevitable due to internal fractures.
Alt-Lite – MAGA, libertarians, anti-SJWs. Initially embraced the alt-right label when it was innocuous but disavowed after Charlottesville. Gradually absorbed refugees from the fallen alt-right and adopted some of their ideas, including hereditarianism, soft white nationalism, sex essentialism, and anti-democracy sentiments.
Goals:
Normalize white identity (Total Success)
Destigmatize far-right ideas (Total Success)
Push the Overton Window right (Total Success)
Stop the Great Replacement / White Genocide (Total Failure)
Anti-White Side
Anti-white whites – The largest bloc of SJW foot soldiers.
Non-whites – Relatively small faction of the anti-white movement compared to their overall voting bloc size.
Anti-white Jews – Single-handedly revived anti-Semitism in the Western world.
Conservative/liberal establishment – Made up almost the entire political establishment of both parties pre-2016. Exists today in a weaker form as an amalgamation of neocons, neoliberals, and leftists.
Goals:
Institutionalize white guilt and subservience (Total Failure)
Shift the Overton Window left (Total Failure)
Keep far-right ideas marginalized/stigmatized (Total Failure)
Defend the liberal order (Total Failure)
Events
BLM 1 (2015): Start of the cycle.
White Privilege Discourse (2015): Radicalized both sides but ultimately favored the right.
White Genocide Fears (2015): Created existential dread among normies and helped the right.
Alt-Right Surge (2015-2016): Ended in collapse but was necessary for the GOP’s later adoption of its ideas.
Charlottesville (2017): Inevitable but regrettable. The alt-right was destined to decline/fracture due to internal disagreements and a lack of any unifying ideology.
Great Replacement Discourse (2016-2019): A sanitized version of white genocide rhetoric, which appealed to a higher IQ audience. Good for the right.
Racial Cooldown (2020-2022)
After 2020, woke ideas declined, while alt-right concepts spread into the GOP. Soft white identity essentially won.
Racial Cooldown (2020-2022)
After 2020, woke ideas declined while alt-right concepts spread into the GOP. No, we didn’t get an ethnostate, but soft white identity essentially won out.
Overall Winner: (Good Guys)
Gender War 2: 2020-2025
Fueled by the rise of the incel population, the growing popularity of overtly misogynist streamers like Andrew Tate, and general male resentment toward feminine social norms (i.e., "The Longhouse"). Also driven by female resentment toward high-status men engaging in large age-gap relationships (anti-DiCaprio sentiment) and discourse over men consuming certain types of lewd anime and video games.
Factions
Masculine Side:
Misogynists / True Sexists - Andrew Tate fans, Nick Fuentes fans, religious fundamentalists, etc.—those who want to establish an overtly sexist society with distinct roles and legal rights for men and women.
Gamergate Veterans: People who resent the state of modern gaming and want to restore it to a pre-woke era before nerd culture was overrun with progressive messaging.
Weebs: Dedicated to preserving anime and Eastern gaming from Westernization (i.e., preventing their waifus from becoming androgynous, fat, brown, old, or gay).
Goals:
Destroy the Longhouse (i.e., female social control over men and society).
Preserve weeb culture.
Remasculinize gaming.
Undo wokeness in media.
Anti-Masculine Side:
Pantsuits / Uggos / Fatties / Expired Women (Hags) – Base/Majority, want high status men to stop having preferences which exclude them. Resent men overtly and more attractive women secretly.
Radfems – Leaders, hate men, almost always damaged, sometimes sex essentialists (which is based)
Spiritual Fags (Male Allies) – simps and or covert sexual predators masquerading as heckin good men
Goals:
Remove "problematic" elements from anime/Eastern games.
Stigmatize age-gap relationships.
Retain gains from Gamergate.
Events
Age-Gap Discourse (2020-Present): Sparked by elite grooming scandals and the #MeToo movement driving pedo paranoia, this issue is being used as a wedge against men, especially as an increasing number of unmarried women see their sexual market value decline with age.
Ugly Female Video Game Characters (2018-Present): Following Gamergate, there has been a push for unattractive, androgynous female leads. In response, gamers have revolted, defending Eastern gaming as the last bastion of traditionally attractive female characters.
Anime is Pedophilic Discourse (2020-Present): A result of the increased use of pedo-jacketing tactics online. Woke critics aren’t entirely wrong on this one—anime is often pretty damn pedophilic. However, the issue in question, i.e., the demand for “lolis” (neotenous cartoon girls) among men, isn’t caused by the existence of anime. Cleaning up the subculture likely wouldn’t make men as a group any less pedophilic, since such attraction is displayed by an overwhelming majority of the male population, most of whom are not weebs.
Andrew Tate Controversies(2022-present): TBD. There’s a bunch of them.
Man vs. Bear Discourse(2024): The woke are right, men are more dangerous and this proves male superiority over nature.
End of Cycle (2025): Oddly, no female protests comparable to 2017 despite Roe v. Wade’s repeal. Women seem out of steam.
Gender Cooldown (2025-2027)
Overall Winner: (Undecided but likely Good Guys)
The ultimate problem for the anti-masculine side is that their theory of men assumes that what they want to change about them is a product of poor socialization. As I’ve covered before, everything women hate about men is just men being their authentic selves. "Toxic masculinity" is natural, while "positive masculinity" is socially constructed.
Feminism’s success has always relied on male consent and at least some degree of male affection for women—something that’s eroding fast. Men today are less sexist than ever before but likely more misogynistic. Their prejudice toward the opposite sex has shifted from that of a 19th-century plantation owner to that of an early 20th-century concentration camp guard. It’s no longer prejudice “for their own good”, they just resent them, their values, and their behavior.
As a result, appeals to men's empathy from women will likely fall on deaf ears moving forward. During this cooldown period (2025-2027), expect to see culture remasculinize as men become increasingly indifferent or outright scornful toward female concerns.
Race War 2: 2022-2027
This phase of the race war began quietly with an explosion of pro-white content on platforms like TikTok, Instagram Reels, and—most importantly—Twitter. Zoomers posting Little Dark Age edits reignited the dormant alt-right factions that had been simmering since 2018. The H-1B visa debate in 2024 served as the catalyst for open conflict.
Factions
Pro White Side:
Dissident Right (Eugenicists, Vitalists, Groypers, Trads) – Leaders
MAGA Base – Majority
Some elements of the MAGA administration (e.g., Stephen Miller, Steve Bannon) – Allies
Goals:
End cheap labor migration.
Anti-White Side:
MAGA Inc / Administration – conflicted
Indians / Legal Immigrants – Indentured servant
Tech Bros / Financiers / Lobbyists – Leader
Goals:
Continue cheap labor migration.
Events
Elon Musk Buys Twitter (2022)
Anti-Indian / H-1B Visa Discourse (2024)
Overall Winner: (Undecided, possible compromise)
This one could go either way. Institutions usually win out over populist mobs, but the white side does have some institutional backing. I could see a compromise where H-1B visa workers are shipped off to a colony in Greenland or something.
Great breakdown. You highlighted something of crucial importance: We have normalized soft white identitarianism but still have a long way to go in ending white replacement. If anything it’s gotten worse, perhaps due to regime reaction to the former.
This is a very interesting article, though I might quibble with some of the cutoff points. I am trying to catalogue a lot of the most important moments of these various trends with my series. You may be interested in Scott Alexander's article which also tries to chart various waves of the culture war: https://www.astralcodexten.com/p/the-rise-and-fall-of-online-culture